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9 月 18th, 2024

European EV Market Share: forecasting the competitive rise of Chinese EV brands against established manufacturers

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随着欧洲电动汽车 (EV) 普及的加速,欧洲大陆即将迎来一场变革,预计市场规模将从 2022 年的 1,194.4 亿美元增长到 2030 年的惊人 4,928.7 亿美元。1 在这个蓬勃发展的环境中,在强劲的电池市场和不断增长的消费者需求的推动下,中国电动汽车制造商正在取得重大进展。这些新进入者不仅是在尝试,今年还将占据纯电动汽车 (BEV) 市场 11% 的份额,预计到 2027 年这一比例将达到 20%。2

The push for a carbon-neutral future, underscored by zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates in the UK and various national incentives across other countries, has positioned Europe as an ideal testing ground for these brands. Despite initial consumer wariness, competitive pricing and cutting-edge technology has enabled Chinese EVs to steadily gain market share, aligning with growing consumer readiness in countries like the UK and Germany. In fact, our recent survey of European auto buyers conducted with the Harris Poll revealed that across both countries acceptance of EV-only models when shopping for a vehicle is expected to reach 46% and 39% by 2030, respectively, and continue to climb to 57% and 50% by 2035. As Chinese EV brands stake their claim, the competitive landscape of the European automotive market is set to become more dynamic than ever. This intensifying competition underscores the necessity for accurate data-driven sales tracking and forecasting, which are crucial for capturing the growing EV market and ensuring long-term success.

2023 年,欧洲道路上行驶的纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车 (PHEV) 数量达到 1120 万辆,这是一个重要的里程碑。3 新电动汽车注册量激增至近 320 万辆,与 2022 年相比增长了近 20%。在欧盟境内,销量达到 240 万辆,与中国观察到的增长率类似,突显了市场成熟后的弹性。令人印象深刻的是,电动汽车占欧洲各国汽车销量的 25-60%。即使在整体市场萎缩的挪威,电动汽车销量份额也略有上升,保持了近 95% 的市场份额。

European EV market share

Reflecting on 2023 European EV sales (infographic)

Electric car registrations and sales share in Europe (2018-2023) (infographic)

欧洲新车销售市场电动汽车市场份额增长 20% 的趋势表明电动汽车的采用强劲且加速。传统汽车制造商仍然占据着电动汽车销量的最大份额,占市场的四分之三,但他们的主导地位正面临挑战,仅法国和意大利的电动汽车市场份额就下降了约 6%。然而,传统汽车制造商可以利用其已建立的品牌信任和消费者忠诚度,特别是在品牌形象受到高度重视的地区,来抵消这些损失。相比之下,中国新进入者正在取得显着进步,甚至挑战特斯拉等老牌企业的市场份额主导地位。专家们一致认为,欧盟提高关税不会阻止中国汽车制造商夺取市场份额,并指出新进入者的四个关​​键成功因素:价格、技术、规模和品牌认知度。尽管关税担忧可能会引起恐慌,但中国品牌并未表示要退缩;相反,关税可能会加速其生产的本地化。

中国汽车制造商的成功取决于他们提供具有价格竞争力的汽车、获得并保持软件和数字体验方面的技术优势、战术性规模化运营以及建立品牌知名度的能力。价格仍然是一个关键驱动因素,与老牌汽车制造商相比,中国品牌能够提供价格更低的汽车。此外,他们有时被认为在技术方面表现出色,尤其是在软件和数字体验方面,这对年轻一代很有吸引力。然而,规模和品牌认知度仍然是中国进入者的重大障碍。他们必须建立意识并提供高质量的售后服务,以避免声誉受损并鼓励重复销售。就售后服务网络而言,老牌汽车制造商在这方面具有显着优势,其遍布欧洲的全面售后服务网络有助于长期保持客户满意度和忠诚度。多达20个新的中国品牌竞相吸引关注,竞争将非常激烈,消费者的选择可能会变得混乱。

展望 2030:基于当今趋势的预测

到 2030 年,中国电动汽车制造商将在新进入者的欧洲电动汽车市场中占据相当大的份额,而老牌汽车制造商预计将通过积极扩大其车型和动力总成产品来重新获得市场份额。在德国、英国和法国,老牌汽车制造商预计将增长 3-4%,基本上使它们的市场份额恢复到 2023 年的水平。在意大利和西班牙,老牌制造商预计将拥有强劲且不断增长的电动汽车市场份额,从目前意大利的 84% 和西班牙的 82% 跃升至 90% 以上。

据GlobalData预测,欧洲电动汽车市场将经历新进入电动汽车制造商之间的激烈竞争,特别是来自中国公司的竞争,因为他们努力建立和发展销售网络。这些新进入者正在利用有竞争力的价格、先进的技术以及与当地公司的战略合作伙伴关系来渗透市场。在德国,中国品牌预计将占据8%的市场份额,这证明了他们有能力缩小与特斯拉等老牌企业的差距。在英国,他们的市场份额预计将达到14%,而特斯拉的份额则下降至7%,凸显了他们积极扩张战略的有效性。在法国,中国制造商的份额将逐步增长至 7%,而特斯拉的份额将在 2023 年从 12% 下降至 6%。意大利和西班牙将出现市场份额争夺战,其市场份额将出现小幅波动,而特斯拉的市场份额仍停滞在 2023 年。 2%。这一总体趋势表明中国电动汽车的接受度和竞争力不断增强。

新入围者获奖者(按国家/地区划分)

New Entrant Winner by Country (infographic)

这些动态凸显了一个快速发展的市场,新进入者不仅对特斯拉构成挑战,而且还将自己定位为老牌汽车制造商的强大竞争者。随着本世纪末的到来,欧洲电动汽车市场将呈现出激烈竞争的特点,从而重塑欧洲大陆移动出行的未来。

针对多样化和不断变化的市场的战略规划

欧洲电动汽车采用率的增长没有任何放缓的迹象,随着大众市场的接受,电动汽车的发展势头更加强劲。到 2023 年,欧洲电动汽车市场份额总计将达到 21%,大大超过 15% 的早期采用基准。随着电动汽车格局的发展和竞争的加剧,今天做出的战略决策对于占领未来市场份额和确保长期成功至关重要。为了应对这种动态环境,企业必须优先考虑了解市场趋势,培养全渠道购物体验,并通过教育打破电动汽车采用的障碍。

最优规划的重要性

A pillar for future EV success is accurate sales forecasting, which is essential for identifying current hotspots and future growth areas. This involves not only understanding where the market is thriving but also recognizing areas with the potential for expansion. Given that EV sales are expected to remain geographically clustered, retailers will experience diverse market conditions depending on their locations. Successful planning hinges on strong forecasting to determine the specific types and quantities of EVs, along with related services, necessary to meet consumer demands effectively. Manufacturers must confidently navigate the complexities of the EV market, making informed decisions on allocation, inventory and marketing to balance current sales with future opportunities. By employing detailed and adaptable sales forecasting, they can proactively address consumer needs, tailor strategies to each market’s unique dynamics and ensure success in the rapidly evolving EV landscape.

到 2023 年,欧洲电动汽车市场份额总计将达到 21%,大大超过 15% 的早期采用基准。

平衡面对面和数字偏好

为了满足消费者的多样化需求,制造商必须建立强大的全渠道购物网络。根据我们的研究,在德国,51% 的汽车购买者认为传统零售商针对未来进行了优化,而在英国,40% 的汽车购买者也有同样的看法。此外,传统的面对面零售商体验仍然是 87% 的德国汽车购买者和 89% 的英国汽车购买者的首选。

然而,在整个车辆购买过程中,面对面互动的重要性各不相同。例如,德国和英国超过 80% 的汽车购买者更喜欢亲自进行车辆设置和指导。此外,很大一部分人(71% 的英国汽车购买者和近 80% 的德国汽车购买者)倾向于亲自协商汽车价格。尽管有这些偏好,数字平台仍具有相当大的影响力,大约 29% 的英国汽车购买者和 32% 的德国汽车购买者更喜欢在线选车。此外,45% 的英国汽车买家更喜欢通过在线途径了解车辆功能和规格。面对面和数字偏好之间的微妙相互作用强调了企业必须采用全渠道方法来有效满足并超越消费者的期望。

传统的面对面经销商体验仍然是 87% 的德国汽车购买者和 89% 的英国汽车购买者的首选。

教育克服了电动汽车采用障碍

Lastly, education is crucial in overcoming barriers to EV adoption. 46% of auto buyers in both countries strongly agree that retailers should offer individualized guidance for customers transitioning to EVs. The primary barrier to EV adoption in key markets is the concern about the distance that can be traveled on a single charge, with 38% of auto buyers in the UK and 35% in Germany citing this as a top concern. Other major concerns include the time it takes to recharge, the high initial cost, a lack of charging infrastructure and the necessity of installing a home charging station. Safety concerns are particularly prominent in Germany at 21%, compared to the UK’s 12%, highlighting regional differences in perceived barriers to EV adoption. Addressing these concerns through targeted education and personalized customer service can help ease the transition to EVs and foster greater market penetration.

46% of auto buyers strongly agree that dealerships should offer individualized guidance for customers transitioning to EVs.

科学的客观力量。

自 45 年前成立以来,我们经过验证的科学零售商规划方法不断改进和发展。这种方法保持领先的技术曲线,有助于提高零售商网络的绩效,并且仍然是行业标准。

如果您想与 Urban Science 的人员讨论您的电动汽车策略,请致电或发送电子邮件给我。让我们向您展示如何运用科学的力量来应对您的挑战。

Natalia Gancedo
欧洲区域客户经理
NGancedo@urbanscience.com

1. Europe Electric Vehicle Market Size, Share & Trends [2030], (fortunebusinessinsights.com)

2. Chinese EVs to grab 11% market share in Europe in 2024: NGO · TechNode

3,4. Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis – IEA

Urban Science Online Consumer and Dealer Studies, February 2024. These surveys were conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Urban Science among 3,005 U.S. adults aged 18+ and 250 U.S. automotive dealers.

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